Drawing Lessons from History

Numerous ancient civilisations collapsed or disappeared, leaving behind grand ruins reminiscent of what poet Shelley described in his sonnet Ozymandias. The term 'collapse' refers to a significant reduction in population and/or political, economic, and social complexity of a society across a wide area for an extended period.

The awe-inspiring ruins left behind by these past societies captivate us all. As children, we marvel at them when we first discover them through pictures-vast stone structures, intricate carvings, or towering temples that defy imagination. As we grow older, many of us plan vacations to witness these remarkable sites firsthand, standing in silent reverence before the remnants of a world that once thrived. We are drawn to their magnificent and haunting beauty, as well as the enigmas they present. The grandeur of these ruins attests to the previous wealth and power of their builders, yet their sudden disappearance challenges our understanding of human resilience. These builders vanished, abandoning the remarkable structures they had painstakingly constructed. How did a once-mighty society end up collapsing, leaving behind only echoes of its former glory?

For a long time, it has been suspected that the mysterious disappearance of many such societies was, to some extent, triggered by ecological issues unintentional destruction of the environmental resources on which their societies relied. This suspicion of unintended ecological suicide, or ecocide, has been substantiated by discoveries made in recent decades by archaeologists, climatologists, historians, palaeontologists, and palynologists (pollen scientists). The processes through which past societies have undermined themselves by damaging their environments can be categorised into eight areas, which vary in significance from one case to another: deforestation and habitat loss, soil degradation, water management challenges, overhunting, overfishing, the impacts of invasive species on native ones, human population growth, and increased human activity.

Historical collapses generally followed similar patterns resembling variations on a theme. These patterns often include resource depletion, environmental degradation, internal strife, or external pressures, yet the specific combination and intensity of these factors varied across civilisations. Writers are often tempted to draw analogies between the trajectory of human society and that of an individual's life, speaking of a society's birth, growth, peak, old age, and eventual demise. However, this metaphor proves inaccurate for many past societies: they experienced rapid declines after reaching their peak in terms of population and power, and these rapid declines must have come as a surprise and shock to their inhabitants. It is evident that not all past societies followed this trajectory uniformly to its conclusion: different societies collapsed to varying degrees and in somewhat distinct ways while many societies did not collapse at all. The diversity in collapse mechanisms suggests that while certain systemic vulnerabilities may be universal, their expression is deeply contingent on local conditions, cultural responses, and the interplay of multiple stressors over time.

Currently, many individuals believe that environmental problems eclipse other global threats. These environmental problems encompass the same eight factors that contributed to past societies' downfalls, plus four new ones: human-induced climate change, the accumulation of toxic chemicals, energy shortages, and the complete utilisation of the Earth's photosynthetic capacity. However, the seriousness of these modern environmental dilemmas is vigorously debated among the scientific community. Are the perceived risks overstated or undervalued? Will contemporary technology resolve our issues, or is it producing new challenges faster than it can remedy old ones? When one resource (such as wood, oil, or ocean fish) is depleted, can we trust that new alternatives (like plastics, wind and solar energy, or farmed fish) will emerge? Isn't the rate of human population growth slowing down, suggesting we might soon reach a manageable global population?

Questions like these highlight why the well-known collapses of past civilisations carry more significance than merely being romantic mysteries. There may be practical lessons to be learnt from these historical failures. However, there are also differences between the modern world and its problems, and those ancient societies and their problems. It would be naive to assume that studying the past will yield straightforward answers directly applicable to today's world. We have certain advantages over past societies that reduce our risks, including our powerful technology (i.e. its beneficial effects), globalisation, modern medicine, and enhanced awareness of both past and distant modern societies. At the same time, there are also factors that heighten our risks in comparison to earlier civilisations: again, our potent technology (i.e. its unintended destructive effects), globalisation (where a problem in one area can affect the entire world), the reliance of millions on modern health care for survival, and our vastly larger human population. Perhaps we can still learn from the past, but only if we carefully contemplate its lessons.